Written by @kendoVT
The FedEx Cup Playoffs roll into week two as the Top 100 golfers in the FEC rankings head to Norton, Ma to play the Dell Technologies Championship from TPC Boston. Four golfers are sitting out this week (Sneds, Holmes, Stenson, Piercy) so the field is now down to 96 golfers. There still is a cut and like usual the Top 70 and ties make it to weekend play. When it comes to strategy in an event like this, I’m leaning towards a stars and scrubs approach in GPPs. The reasoning behind this is that elite golfers have thrived during the FEC playoffs the last few years. In the last 8 FEC playoff events the winners have all been in the Top 15 in the World Golf Rankings. Also top ranked players have dominated the winners circle at TPC Boston for the last decade plus. Eight of the last eleven winners here were ranked inside the Top 10 in OWGR at the time of their win. Ten of the past eleven winners here were inside the Top 30 in the OWGR. The only outlier was Charley Hoffman (132nd) in 2010. Combine this with the fact that only 20-25 golfers in the field won’t play the weekend, stars and scrubs seems like the play in GPPs. I also think that looking at ownership projections for golfers in the high price range could be useful this week. You can make an argument to use all golfers $9,000 and up on DraftKings. The way I’m going about it this week is that I’m going to use my favorite play up top the most based on my research, then my second highest owned up top will be decided upon ownership projections. When it comes to GPPs I never use a player in more than 45% of my lineups. If you use this type of strategy, it’s possible to be overweight on the field with three or more golfers above $9,000 this week. The best guys in my opinion who do ownership projections are Brad Messersmith (@bmessDFS on Twitter), Logan Harper (@logangharper11), and Colin Drew (@drewby417).
TPC Boston which has hosted the DTC since 2003 was redesigned by Gil Hanse in 2007 (originally an Arnold Palmer design) and has had a few other tweaks including a complete overhaul of holes 12 and 13 this year. The lengthening of the par 4 12th hole to 500 yards and the reshaping of the green on 13 to make it more narrow and long will make the three hole stretch of 12-14 more difficult this year as both the 500 yard par 4s are now within two holes of each other (12th and 14th). The back nine was already the more challenging nine but with these new changes, the back gets even more difficult. This 7,342 yard par 71 course has three par 5s and four par 3s. Two of the par 5s are relatively short and should be reachable by every golfer in the field. The 18th hole is one of those reachable par 5s which could lead to an exciting finish come Monday. There are two (possible) drivable par 4s early in the round (1st and 4th) but realistically the 1st is a layup hole and the 4th is where golfers can be more aggressive. Six of the par 4s range from 450-500 yards and three range from 400-450 yards. Off the tee golfers will see wide tree lined fairways with fairway bunkers and chocolate drop mounds lining the edges of the fairways if golfers miss. The chocolate drop mounds replaced quite a few fairway bunkers and are bulging round mounds with extra tall grass on them. These chocolate drop mounds were added by Gil Hanse and though they don’t look menacing off the tee, they could be trouble for golfers if their ball lands in them. The rough around the fairway could get to as high as four inches tall but it is not that thick and hasn’t been too big of an issue for golfers over the years. I recently read an article saying that this year the rough will be thicker and harder to hit out of, but it has only come from one source so I’m not sure how reliable it is. I would keep an eye on Golf Channel this week to see if golfers are saying the rough is a bit thicker than normal. The fairways are easy to hit (66%) but if golfers miss wildly off the tee they will have to deal with trees and knee high fescue. On approach shots golfers will see slightly below average size bentgrass greens with plenty of bunkers and water on a few holes. Some of the greens will be elevated and they should play fairly firm and fast with a stimpmeter rating of around 12.5. A few greens are multi-tiered with a good amount of slope but the majority of the greens will be fairly flat with just a little undulation. The greens are easy to hit as 66% of approach shots find the putting surface. Overall this will be the easiest course of the four playoff courses and birdies should be prevalent unless the rough really is thicker than years past. The winning score is usually somewhere in the high teens and has been as high as -22 in the past.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P) which is a key stat every week
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G):
SG:T2G is an important stat every week but it looks like it has more importance for this course. 30/33 golfers that finished in the Top 3 here since the course redesign in 2007 have finished inside the Top 50 in SG:T2G for the year they finished Top 3. Every winner here since 2007 has been in the Top 50 in SG:T2G and seven of those ten winners were inside the Top 3 in SG:T2G for the year they won.
That’s it for this week. For more PGA DFS knowledge check out my Podcast. It’s called Fantasy Golf Degenerates and you can find it on iTunes. Make sure you check out the other golf DFS tools on Moose.RotoCurve including Jaebberwock’s weekly cheat sheet and the Moosenomics spreadsheet, as it is the best in the business. Also check out Moose’s new site Fantasy National Golf Course. The site has so much info and a lot of stuff you can’t find anywhere else and is currently in the beta stage. Follow me on Twitter @KendoVT for more fantasy golf info! Good luck to everyone this week and hopefully you win big!